June 10, 2022 Overseas Stock Exchange Report

 ◇ U.S. stock market investment strategy

 

1. Market Radar: Instead of G2 Stock / Weekly Data Book (22.05.31~06.07)

- [United States] Until the Fed's rate hike is interpreted as confidence in economic recovery. Value stocks (financial, consumer goods) response.

  Growth stocks (IT, healthcare, ESG, electric vehicles & secondary batteries, aerospace, metaverse) are purchased in installments in the first half of the year (especially in May) when price adjustments are made

​

- Continuing to contract economic sentiment following the promotion of common wealth. Policy efforts to defend the economic slowdown continue.

  The stock market level was higher than the previous year. 1Q and 4Q can be traded based on political events. Attention is paid to leading domestic companies and low-carbon (electric vehicles, secondary batteries)/ESG companies

​

​

 

 

◇ US Company REPORT

 

1. [NAS:AAPL] Shinhan, the leading U.S. IT H/W and S/W company represented by iPhone

​

 Representative IT H/W and S/W companies in the United States represented by iPhone and iOS platforms. Establishment of monopoly position in global premium smartphone market. $600 to $799, 76% and 83% share over $800 respectively

​

 FY2021 iPhone 52%, service 19%, wearable 10%, MAC 10%, iPad 9%

​

 Annual iPhone shipments in 2020 are 25.5 million (+4.1% YoY) and 16% market share, ranking second (+2%p)

​

 Estimated annual iPhone sales of 230 million units in 2021. Shipments are expected to reach 250 million units in 2022. 3rd generation of low-end iPhone SE, iPhone 14 design changes are expected to cause sales to soar in the U.S., which is a major market

​

 Demand for wireless earphones 'AirPods' and smartwatches 'Apple Watch' continues to boost wearable performance

​

 It is expected that AR/VR headset will be released as early as the end of 2022. Synergy with service department due to new device release. Expect the business feasibility of existing subscription-type services to be more

​

 Payable subscribers in the service sector rose 26% from 620 million in 2020 to 7.85 billion in FY1Q22

​

 1.8 billion users of Apple devices perceive as potential demand; service sector growth potential is valid

​

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

■ Chinese stock market investment strategy

 

1. Introduction of a policy to accelerate the construction of chargers and expectations for rapid growth of battery switching stations

​

- Accelerating the deployment of charging equipment, the market for chargers is forecast to grow 72% annually over four years: On June 1, China's State Council announced policies and measures to stabilize the economy

- Key parts suppliers benefiting from high growth of DC chargers and increased penetration rate of fast chargers: Because the most important thing for NEVs is electricity replenishment, DC chargers with high charging speed are generally installed in places with high charging demand, such as highways

- Balance of supply and demand at battery exchange stations within the 14th five-year plan, battery-switched EVs will drive profitability: Some companies have announced plans for battery exchange for the 14th five-year plan, with 1,298 total exchanges in 2021.

​

​

 

 

■ Special Report

 

1. Self-propelled artillery - raw materials, food and FOMC SK

​

[Stock] Week 2 of June Preview: Mitigating monetary policy uncertainty that the FOMC will give in June

 ⚫ The biggest event in the stock market in the second week of June is FOMC in June (June 16 (Thursday) early morning)

▪ The current stock market reflects most of the 50bp increase in the FOMC in June and July, respectively

▪ Federal funds rate futures are currently betting on a 50bp increase in FOMC in September and a 2.75-3% interest rate level at the end of this year

▪ The stock market at the beginning of the week is expected to be largely affected by the results of the May U.S. CPI announcement at 9:30 p.m. on June 10 (Fri)

▪ With the U.S. CPI forecast of 8.2~8.3% YoY formed in May, if it exceeds expectations, the stock market is feared to fall as expectations of interest rate hikes from the September meeting are shaken

▪ This trend is expected to continue before the FOMC in June. Presenting guidance on future interest rate paths in dotplots, reducing uncertainty and the possibility of stabilization

​

⚫ Rising KOSPI profit consensus despite gloomy macro situations

▪ The KOSPI profit consensus has been raised since the end of April. 12MF net profit +3.7% increased and fell to 12MFP/E 9.56 times

▪ In terms of net profit, the contribution to increase is high in the order of semiconductor > transportation > energy, while the contribution to increase is high in the order of utilities < non-ferrous/wooden <insurance

▪ Expected to raise the consensus of transportation, trading/capital goods and utilities (Korea Gas Corporation) in the future when comparing the adjustment rate of the one-month moving average consensus of the KOSPI profit estimate with that of the three-month basis. On the other hand, the consensus of machinery and display industries is expected to be lowered